Rethinking National Statistics

Recent years have seen increasing concern with the quality of ONS data and the impact it is having on macro policymaking in the UK. The complexity of measuring a rapidly evolving modern economy—especially in the face of shocks like the Covid-19 pandemic and post-Brexit adjustments—has led to heightened scrutiny and frequent criticism.

Significant retrospective revisions to key economic indicators have challenged the foundational understanding of the UK’s growth trajectory, and issues with the consistency of labour market data have eroded confidence in its reliability. Critics have argued that this loss of faith has made it harder for the Bank of England, HM Treasury, and other governmental bodies to make informed, real-time decisions.

Following the release of the first in a series of quarterly ONS reports outlining the ongoing process revisions, this panel will move beyond mere critique to assess whether the ONS is heading in the right direction. We will delve into the technical and methodological challenges facing the ONS, exploring how the shift towards integrating big data sources and improving survey methodologies can enhance the robustness of UK statistics. Crucially, the debate will aim to generate constructive ideas on how the ONS can further improve its systems, ensuring the data provided is not only accurate but also consistent and fit-for-purpose.

James Benford, ONS Director General for Economic, Social and Environmental Statistics, will speak on the ONS’ process revision plans, and Rob Wood, Chief UK Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, will provide a commentary from a private markets perspective.